You state that "The strongest evidence for an October 2019 lab leak is the cell phone report." It is my belief that the strongest evidence that SARS-2 did not jump into the human population at the Wuhan Seafood Market in Dec 2019, or cell phone users in October 2019, is the amazing Bayesian analysis of c.900,000 complete dated genomic sequences by Xia, X. Rooting and Dating Large SARS-CoV-2 Trees by Modeling Evolutionary Rate as a Function of Time. Viruses 2023, 15, 684. https://doi.org/10.3390/ v15030684. Xia's analysis shows that the root of the human pandemic was somewhere unknown in June/July 2019 - the cell phone report merely told us that something nasty was causing disease in enough cell phone users in Wuhan to be noticed, not when it probably started freely evolving in the human population, maybe from a serially cloned laboratory stock.
Noted on the early outbreak paper, but that is an outlier. I will assume Xia is a natural origin pusher. From Substack post #2: Research papers reported “phylogenetic estimates support that the SARS2 pandemic started sometime around October 6 to December 11.” Another “places the progenitor of SARS2 to have evolved in mid-September to early-October.” A third “analysis pushes human-to-human transmission back to mid-October to mid-November.”
You state that "The strongest evidence for an October 2019 lab leak is the cell phone report." It is my belief that the strongest evidence that SARS-2 did not jump into the human population at the Wuhan Seafood Market in Dec 2019, or cell phone users in October 2019, is the amazing Bayesian analysis of c.900,000 complete dated genomic sequences by Xia, X. Rooting and Dating Large SARS-CoV-2 Trees by Modeling Evolutionary Rate as a Function of Time. Viruses 2023, 15, 684. https://doi.org/10.3390/ v15030684. Xia's analysis shows that the root of the human pandemic was somewhere unknown in June/July 2019 - the cell phone report merely told us that something nasty was causing disease in enough cell phone users in Wuhan to be noticed, not when it probably started freely evolving in the human population, maybe from a serially cloned laboratory stock.
The cell phone report isn't city-wide; it's just the locked-down BSL4 in October 2019. They tracked Danielle Anderson and Linfa Wang's phones.
https://jimhaslam.substack.com/p/lets-be-blunt-sars2-leaked-from-the
Noted on the early outbreak paper, but that is an outlier. I will assume Xia is a natural origin pusher. From Substack post #2: Research papers reported “phylogenetic estimates support that the SARS2 pandemic started sometime around October 6 to December 11.” Another “places the progenitor of SARS2 to have evolved in mid-September to early-October.” A third “analysis pushes human-to-human transmission back to mid-October to mid-November.”
https://jimhaslam.substack.com/p/2-why-did-the-batman-fly-into-wuhan
The best evidence against an early outbreak is the NA wt deer antibody study. The one 2019 test was assumed to be a false positive:
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2114828118
Both of them and whoever funded this work, belong in jail.
Ty...nice tracking